🔭🍂HOW THE FALL MARKET LOOKS LIKE
Javier and Thomas analyze trends of past years and talk about how to prepare if you want to #sell or #buy in NYC during this upcoming season.
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Hello guys how are you this is Javier from the Thrive Real Estate Team at Compass and as usual i'm here with my partner Thomas hi from the Thrive Real Estate Team at Compass and um today we are here so it's the middle of August and most people are on vacation and labor day is coming up and what happens usually after labor day uh well i usually go to Fire Island nope in the market oh um well funny you should ask the day i get back from Fire Island it seems like the entire universe lists their home for sale yeah so New York has these seasons these waves of real estate and the vast majority of new listings occur the first two weeks of September and the second vast majority of two listings occur the last two weeks of April that's kind of like the seasonality that that happens in there uh in real estate so we're about to reach that yeah there's a lot of people who even those who want to put their properties on the market right now the real advice is like nobody is shopping right now that's also not true it's also not true there's a lot of shoppers right now but most of the shoppers are going to be coming in well I talk to them every day if somebody is shopping right now why would they be shopping because they want to get a deal okay they are not competing with all the buyers that are coming in after labor day so what does a deal mean though does that mean that they just want to buy an apartment does that mean they think they're going to get a discount does that what what is getting a deal mean so yeah i of course i don't know i cannot talk about about the mind of a specific buyer the reality of the market right now is that not competing with other buyers is that you're not gonna have to go into a bidding war correct that actually is a deal right if you're not betting against four other people you're gonna save some money correct the negotiability in Manhattan right now is around three percent the negotiability in Brooklyn right now is zero broken is a very strong market regardless of the season somehow it has behaved like that i mean i guess if you're the seller the negotiability is high right um but like in terms of like units that are going below ask in Manhattan we're looking at a two three percent macro right all of Manhattan so yeah it's a if you're in the market right now as a buyer and you're looking at the ask consider that's very little below that that you can go and i know people are telling me but the apartment's still in the market i understand but the sellers have a very very strong faith in what's going to happen in the fall we're looking at 2009 versus 2022 because i think you mean 2019 2019 versus 2022 because these are covid years here in the middle and they behaved ugly however you can still see certain seasonality here how right that first week of September the supply starts going up and then things start getting into contract we're gonna see that in the next few slides and the supply starts coming down why am i telling you this because if you are a buyer we are right here you have this little bit here to compete very little if you are a seller um you also have less competition here you're about to enter the market where you're going to compete with more units does that mean that you have to discount your property no that means that you have to package it like the most beautiful property among all the properties so the buyers walking there and don't want to go anywhere else what's the number one thing that buyers are looking for right now right now buyers don't want to do any work they want everything to be perfect absolutely moving ready like almost new development yeah kind of like the newest kitchen nearest counter the newest floors and that tends to be the first question that most buyers are asking right now when was the last renovation done well because you have to think about it right generally your renovation is what 10 years maybe 15 years if you really stretch it out yeah so depending on what they're doing right now so if you're going to pay a premium for an apartment right now you don't want to pay a premium and then have to pay a premium because of supply chain issues yeah right so with the cost of goods the cost of labor uh everything just at a super peak right now the idea of spending 300 000 or 20 over asking a price on an apartment and then also paying these hyper-inflated rates not just for the finishes at an apartment but you also have to think about like furnishing an apartment right yeah all of these little things are really going into adding in to what the actual purchasing requirement is and so people want things that look good ready to go and they're like okay sure i paid a premium for this apartment i'm paying a premium for my West Elm but at least at the West Elm will you sponsor me? um at least you know the apartment's ready to go and i don't have to worry about renovating for the next 10 years right so yeah moving ready is the number one thing no matter what other things your elevator laundry outdoor space all of those were through too outer space was huge last year moving ready is the one thing that people are asking right now like across the board is either moving ready or i got it got it yeah but those units that are right there in the middle let's talk because those need a little bit of care for you to get a premium on your apartment you're going to be competing with good inventory this fall we believe right i don't have a magic wand but we look at our pipeline and we look what we're bringing into market and it's good the quality of the product that's coming up it's going to be good yeah um so that's something the man also to kind of like show you a little bit of the seasonality of the market because we're about to enter that season let's look at 2019 again versus sorry this is the first time we do it like this so there's gonna be a lot of mistakes look at 2019 so that this dark blue line it shows how right now there's the demand so the demand is the amount of pending units units in contract versus the amount of supply so right now the the seasonality in our year versus the other year shows us how the demand starts clicking down um in 2021 and 2020 they have very different curves this is the most regular move we are about to enter into a little bit of a good demand space and it's going to go down as the season winds down towards like if you didn't go into contract by midway November you're probably not going into contract next season nope let's not change the market that's another thing buyers are willing to pay ask when the property is moving ready and it really shows value if it's moving ready on our price they're probably not even going to go see it and if it's a price at market but not perfectly moving ready we also have a problem there your offer your offers are going to come low and this is the key thing this look at this bike here this happened even in covered years this is that first second week of September all these new listings coming to market those searches are gonna be popping notifications in our phones like crazy those weeks um so yeah so this this look we're about to enter that phase if you're a buyer you should be super happy because i know because the buyers are talking i'm working with and the searches that i have active we we don't have anything to show because nothing is coming to market people are on vacation contact's sign we're gonna see yeah let's take a look at questions for contract sign absolutely uh you know we're right on target with 2019 but even in 2021 which is a covid year in 2020 it's the same pattern it was just much more pronounced in 2021 um because there was such a high level of activity to begin with that had further to fall but it's the same pattern this week we go down there of course these are this is a lockdown right yeah a little happened during the lockdown September 10th ish all throughout the previous three years we see that the market starts going back up and that contracts start getting signed and that's directly related to labor day weekend right so that labor day weekend happens people go out that first week these those are the properties that were priced properly um and in pristine condition that immediately got offers on day one of showing and immediately went into contract right so and then it's just up from there you see you see here the contract signs start going up from labor day just a little bit a little bit a little bit and they pick up in October usually the end of October because the properties come to market they show get negotiated offers get negotiated getting due diligence and it gets signed around the first week of October to mid October that's kind of like the i mean if we were to see closed properties we don't have them here they tend to close in November December close properties is not a measure that i necessarily like to look at because it's delayed it doesn't tell me what the market is really doing right now because of this right property comes to market at some point and from the moment it's in contract until it closes it's three months and you can see here the difference that three months can make in a regular market and seasonality so when you're looking that's important to keep in mind when you're looking at media information you're watching the news and they're telling you all of this is happening in the market most of the time it doesn't apply to New York directly they're talking about the national market and the few that talk about New York that you're gonna reading blogs and online are looking at data that's three to six months old so we're basically taking a look at the past contract signed this guy's here that's a look at now yeah that is what is happening on real time the real market is contract sign that's what we have to keep in mind when you are a seller or when you are a buyer so what does that mean if you're going to be if you want to buy or you want to sell you want to buy or you want to sell now so if you want to sell in the fall you have to really move quickly at this point very quickly yeah calling us don't even bother interviewing us just sign the paperwork we'll send you google form you'll fill it out when you'll get it no no for real give us a call and and or shoot us a message and and let's talk because if you want to sell before December before the end of this year you want to enter that market in September a little later you're getting kind of like the the tail end of what the market does that mean that it's a bad time to sell not necessarily look depending on what the market is doing but usually you're getting the exhausted buyers at that moment the the buyers that are gonna move fast and quick are on the market in September um so that's number one and then number two make sure that you're listening to what's happening in real time and looking at your competition in real time and that's if you're if you're selling if you're buying what what does this data tell you well if you're buying you really should be out previewing now so that you can see get an idea of what it is that you like yeah and if you see what you like now buy it now because if you wait until September and you wait till the new inventory comes out the new inventory is basically chum in the water right it's just gonna bring out all the buyers that have been waiting yeah and if instead you're going to be competing against nobody or one or two people you're now going to be competing against 10 or 12 people um you know there's been some good news in the papers recently the job report was good interest is down gas prices are down uh we're back under four dollars for a gas price average which is yeah mortgage interest ticked a bit up right now but still like it's stable right it does it doesn't feel like it's going to be going up tons the inflation also take down yeah so all these good news is going to feed uh good news you know less bad news less bad news right the crypto market's up if you pay attention yeah and so people i feel like people are gonna move more confidently into the fall market than what i thought was gonna happen three weeks ago three weeks ago it looked uncertain we didn't know what's going to happen and all of a sudden in three weeks like we lifted the hood of the of the engine and we're like look it looks good yeah we still need some polish here some oil there but it's looking good and that's that's good news for everyone in New York and nationwide really uh hopefully worldwide too um anything else that we want to add to all this beauty i don't think so nice so thank you very much for watching share with your friends if you know anybody who's been mentioning that they want to buy or sell and who've been thinking about it and like share dm and anything i don't know what platform you're watching it on and we would love to connect with you whether you're gonna buy sell or rent in the near future or later uh we can keep you updated in the market take care