Manhattan Real Estate Market March 2025: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

The Spring Market Is Heating Up—But Is It as Hot as It Should Be?

March is supposed to be a big month for Manhattan real estate. Historically, it marks the beginning of the most active season, with listings surging and contract signings peaking. But according to the latest UrbanDigs Macro Monday report, the numbers are coming in lower than expected. While the market is seeing movement, it’s not quite hitting its usual stride. So, what’s really happening?

Let’s break it down.

Inventory Is Rising—But Not Fast Enough

One of the key takeaways from the latest data is that new listings are coming onto the market, but they’re still behind the expected pace. March typically sees around 1,673 new listings, yet we’re only at 1,448 so far. Will we catch up? Probably. But the slower-than-expected influx suggests sellers might be hesitant, possibly waiting to see if conditions improve.

Historically, March through June are the four biggest months for contract activity, with March leading the way. That means anyone thinking about listing should consider doing so now, before the peak buyer demand starts to wane. If the usual trends hold, activity should ramp up in the coming weeks—but the gap between expectations and reality is worth watching.

Contract Activity: A Bit of a Dip, But Not a Disaster

The contract signing numbers are where things get interesting. The expectation for March is around 1,100 signed contracts, but we’re currently sitting at 870. That’s below the seasonal average and follows a similar pattern from February, where contract activity also came in light.

Here’s the kicker—despite the lower-than-expected numbers, agents are reporting strong buyer interest. The market “feels” busy. That could mean there’s a pipeline of deals brewing that just hasn’t hit the books yet. If that’s the case, we might see a delayed surge in contracts over the next few weeks.

Mortgage Rates Are Falling—But Will It Spark More Deals?

One of the most encouraging trends for buyers is that mortgage rates are on the decline. We’ve dropped below 6.75%, and if that trend continues, it could bring more financed buyers into the game—especially in the sub-$2 million market, which is more reliant on mortgages.

But here’s the thing: historically, there’s not a strong correlation between mortgage rates and deal activity in Manhattan. The market doesn’t always respond immediately to rate changes. Still, if rates continue dropping and contract activity doesn’t pick up, it could signal underlying economic concerns.

The Luxury Market Is Holding Up—And Could Pull the Rest of the Market With It

Despite some broader uncertainties, the luxury segment ($4M+) is still performing well. In February, 10% of all contracts signed were in new development, with an average price of $4M—and a good portion of these were likely cash deals. That’s a sign that high-net-worth buyers are still confident in Manhattan real estate.

Why does that matter? Because luxury sales often set the tone for the rest of the market. If the high-end continues to perform, it could help maintain stability even if mid-tier and entry-level sales lag.

Macro Trends: What’s Happening Beyond Manhattan?

Zooming out a bit, national inventory is rising, especially in the South and Southeast. While inventory in NYC is still low, other markets are seeing significant increases. That could mean different parts of the country start experiencing a slowdown before we feel it in Manhattan.

At the same time, inflation expectations are creeping up, and there’s ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and economic policy. The big question: Will rate cuts come soon enough to balance out these concerns? Right now, markets are pricing in three rate cuts for 2025, but whether the Fed follows through is still an open question.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

If You’re a Seller:

Now is a good time to list—historically, March through June is the best window for activity.
Luxury sales are still moving, so if you’re in that segment, there’s demand.
If your property isn’t selling fast, pricing aggressively might be key given the slightly weaker contract numbers.

If You’re a Buyer:

Rates are falling, which could improve affordability—but don’t expect an instant flood of new deals.
The market is still tight on inventory, but there are opportunities.
Be ready to move fast when a good property hits the market, as competition is still there.

The Bottom Line

We’re in a transitional moment. The Manhattan market is showing signs of strength, but inventory is still constrained, contract activity is lagging slightly, and mortgage rate cuts may take time to make an impact.

While we’re not seeing the full-on market explosion that typically comes with spring, the foundations for a strong season are still in place. If buyer demand continues building and rates stay low, we could see an uptick in deals over the next few weeks.

So, is it business as usual in NYC real estate? Not quite. But it’s far from a downturn either. Keep an eye on these trends—because what happens in the next month could shape the rest of 2025.