What happens when Manhattan real estate hits peak supply while demand takes a breather—and rents keep soaring?
Welcome to June 2025: where every market signal feels like it’s whispering “wait and see.” Supply’s at a seasonal high. Buyer activity has cooled. Yet average rents remain stubbornly (and historically) high. The result? A market that feels less like a sprint—and more like we’re all just waiting at the starting line, looking around to see who’ll blink first.
“It’s Just a Little Flat Right Now”—But That’s a Shift
Manhattan inventory surged in May with over 1,760 new listings—well above the seasonal average. Instead of retreating during macroeconomic uncertainty (as sellers often do), listings kept coming. But buyers didn’t quite follow suit.
Contracts signed clocked in at around 970 for the month—down from expectations. And that imbalance shows up in the UrbanDigs Market Pulse, which has slid into a new lower range. We’re not tumbling, but we’re definitely not rising. The spring surge has faded, and the market feels... parked.
The Real Estate “Campground”: We’re Hanging Out Here for a Bit
UrbanDigs likens it to “building a little house” at this new level—aka, the market has found a resting spot, just not the one sellers hoped for. Supply is no longer the non-story it was last year. It’s accumulating. And contract volume is lagging. That gives buyers the edge, even if the power shift is more psychological than financial.
Let’s be clear—this isn’t a full buyer’s market. But it’s not a seller’s one either. We’re smack in the neutral zone, and that means the strength of each deal depends more than ever on price, presentation, and product.
Higher Mortgage Rates Aren’t Helping, But They’re Not the Whole Story
Since late April, jumbo mortgage rates have floated in the 6.8% to 7.1% range, and they’ve stayed stubbornly high. That volatility and cost, especially on luxury loans, creates a psychological pause for buyers—even when 60%+ of Manhattan deals are all-cash.
Some of it is sentiment. Some of it’s real dollars. Either way, it's pushing more would-be buyers into the rental market. And speaking of...
Rents Are the One Thing That Refuse to Chill
In April, the average rent in Manhattan hit $4,800. May dipped slightly to $4,700, but both figures are well above the previous high-water mark of $4,500. The floor has officially shifted.
Here’s the kicker: if UrbanDigs' Noah is right, we could see rents rise for another 12 to 24 months. That’s not a spike. That’s a trend.
If you’re renting now and expecting relief soon—don’t hold your breath. And if you’re a buyer waiting for prices to crash? Well, strong rental demand may keep sales prices steadier than expected.
National Housing vs. Manhattan: Two Very Different Stories
While some markets across the U.S. (especially the Sunbelt) are seeing more sellers than buyers, Manhattan’s inventory levels feel almost tame in comparison. And unlike Austin or Phoenix—where home values shot up post-pandemic and are now correcting—Manhattan has remained... flat.
Literally. Resale condo prices per square foot haven’t really moved in a decade. It’s not sexy, but it’s proving stable. That suppressed appreciation may actually be Manhattan’s secret weapon this cycle.
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So… What Happens This Summer?
Here’s where it gets interesting.
If buyer fatigue gives way to action—fueled by rising rents and acceptance that rates aren’t falling anytime soon—we could see a surprisingly active summer. Especially if sellers, many of whom are also buyers, start getting real about pricing.
But beware: comps from March or April may overstate value. That was a different market. Today’s buyer is cautious, informed, and ready to walk.
For agents and sellers, this means one thing: pricing has to be razor-sharp. Product needs to shine. And expectations? Well, those need to be managed.
Let’s Call It What It Is: A Transitional Market
This isn’t the frenzied market of 2021. It’s not the frozen one of early 2020 either. It’s somewhere in between. And that in-between space rewards preparation, realism, and good data.
Smart agents are using tools like UrbanDigs Advisor to run hyper-local market scans and help both buyers and sellers understand the real temperature on their specific unit—not just the overall mood.
And that mood? Cautiously curious. Ready for something to happen—but not quite willing to force it.
📢 Ready to Make Your Move?
Whether you're buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to pay attention. This isn’t a sleepy summer—it’s a recalibration. Want a better sense of where your apartment stands in this shifting market? Let’s talk. I’ll run the numbers, check the pulse, and give you straight answers—without the fluff.