Manhattan’s fall real estate season is officially underway, and early signs show it could be more unpredictable—and more revealing—than anyone expected.
The September Surge: NYC’s Compressed Spring
Labor Day is barely behind us, yet the market is already waking up. September isn’t just another month in New York real estate—it’s the heavyweight champion of listing activity. On average, nearly 1,757 new listings hit the Manhattan market in September, making it the busiest single month of the year for fresh inventory.
Why? Because fall here is short and sharp. Unlike spring, which stretches across March through May, the fall season is compressed into about three weeks of prime momentum. If you’re thinking of selling, this is the window you don’t want to miss.
And here’s the catch: miss September, and your next best option is spring 2026. Few serious buyers are browsing in mid-November, and summer listings almost always underperform. The rhythm of this market is unforgiving, and timing really is everything.
Buyers Biding Their Time
For all the energy on the supply side, demand hasn’t fully woken up yet. Contract activity is hovering around 718 signed deals, a bit above the September average of 707, but still relatively quiet. That’s not unusual—September is when listings flood in, and the deals tend to follow in October and November.
This dynamic can feel confusing. A buyer scrolling through StreetEasy today might think the market is tipping in their favor because there’s suddenly so much choice. But agents know better: leverage isn’t decided in September. The tug-of-war between buyers and sellers only becomes clear once those new listings start turning into signed contracts.
So, is this a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? Honestly—it’s both and neither. September is the setup. The real test comes in the months ahead.
Mortgage Rates: Relief in Slow Motion
Here’s the thing: rates are shifting, and it matters. A softer-than-expected jobs report last week set off a chain reaction that pushed mortgage rates down before the Fed even announced a move. It’s the market doing what the market does—pricing in expectations.
All eyes are now on September 17th, when the Fed is widely expected to announce a rate cut. Futures are betting on not just one, but three cuts before year’s end. Whether that all happens is anyone’s guess, but what’s important is this: mortgage rates are already at their lowest levels in a year.
Some jumbo loans are approaching the mid-6s, and with relationship banking (think local lenders who actually know your name), buyers are even scoring deals in the 5s.
The funny part? When rates spiked in 2022, headlines screamed it from the rooftops. But now that they’re easing back down, it’s happening almost in whispers—small paper cuts, week by week. The average buyer may not even realize how much more affordable financing has become. And that quiet shift could be the wildcard of this season.
https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi
A Tale of Two Markets
Nationally, the story looks very different. Across the U.S., more sellers are out there than buyers, price indices are dipping, and housing recession headlines are everywhere.
But Manhattan isn’t following the script. Prices here haven’t collapsed; instead, they’ve been moving sideways for months. Liquidity is low, yes, and the climate index shows a tough environment for listings, but prices themselves remain surprisingly stable.
Historically, New York has a pattern: it’s often the last major market to fall into a slowdown and the first to climb back out. That resilience doesn’t mean sellers can overprice, but it does mean buyers shouldn’t expect fire-sale discounts either.
Think of it as two parallel movies: the national market is deep into a slowdown scene, while Manhattan is stuck in a tense pause, waiting for the next act.
Local Quirks That Could Tip the Balance
Of course, Manhattan always adds its own twists. This year, a couple of wildcards could shape the fall:
-
Mayoral election jitters. Some sellers are debating whether to list now or wait until spring, hoping to avoid uncertainty tied to November’s results.
-
StreetEasy’s new 30-day rule. Days on Market (DOM) now resets after just 30 days off-market, which means listings can reappear looking “brand new.” That might boost traffic, but it also muddies the waters on how long a property has really been sitting.
Add to that the subtle realities of pricing tiers (miss the cutoff by $5,000 and you miss an entire pool of buyers) and you see how local knowledge matters more than ever.
Race for New York City mayor | Live updates
What Buyers Should Do Now
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this might be your nudge. Rates are more favorable than they’ve been in months, and new listings are finally arriving. But here’s the kicker: the best properties, especially under $4M, still move fast.
So, what should you do?
-
Get your financing prepped now. Not next week.
-
Build relationships with lenders who can offer better-than-advertised deals.
-
Be ready to move quickly, because the “thinking about it for a week” approach will still cost you the apartment you love.
The sub-luxury market in particular is where opportunities could open up. It’s where financing matters most—and where falling rates could finally tip the balance.
What Sellers Should Do Now
Sellers, the clock is ticking. September is your moment. Wait too long, and you risk being the listing that drags into November, when buyers are distracted and energy is gone.
That means:
-
Price realistically. Overpricing in this climate isn’t bold, it’s a recipe for sitting stale.
-
Prep your apartment properly—lighting, staging, repairs. Buyers are more selective now.
-
Don’t ignore presentation quirks like Days on Market resets. Perception is part of your strategy.
If you’re waiting until spring because of the election, weigh the risk: buyers may have more options by then, and your competition could be even stiffer.
Wrapping It Up
Fall 2025 in Manhattan real estate is a season of contradictions. Inventory is rising, but not in excess. Rates are falling, but quietly. National headlines scream slowdown, while local prices hold steady.
It’s confusing, yes. But it’s also full of opportunity—if you know how to read the signals.
Ready to Talk Strategy?
If you’re planning to buy or sell in NYC this fall, don’t wait on the sidelines. With rates easing, fresh inventory arriving, and plenty of nuance in play, now’s the time to talk strategy. Reach out today—I’ll help you read the market signals, cut through the noise, and move with confidence.