Manhattan real estate is hitting a summer slowdown—but beneath the surface, something more complex is brewing.
You’d expect things to slow down in late June. Hot weather, vacation brain, and the city’s familiar seasonal pause tend to drag new listings and contract volume down. But this summer? It’s quieter than usual—and that might be saying something.
The Heat Is On: A Softer Summer Emerges
Week by week, Manhattan’s inventory isn’t building like it used to. New listings that typically pop up this time of year are down. In fact, Urban Digs reports the 30-day supply number was 1,3400 as of mid-June—trailing behind the monthly target of 1,386. That’s a signal. The season is shifting earlier, and the faucet of fresh inventory might be twisting shut for the season.
The Fourth of July hasn’t even hit, yet agents are already noticing thinner activity and an increasingly sluggish rhythm. What does that mean? Well, if you’re a seller thinking about listing right now—timing is not exactly on your side.
Buyers Hold the Cards (For Now)
Let’s be honest—this isn’t a great market for sellers. The leverage charts are clear: we’re hovering in what Urban Digs calls the “buyer side of the neutral zone.” Not a full-on buyer’s market, but certainly a soft patch.
The Market Pulse and Listing Climate Index are both showing softness, especially compared to the March peak. That mini-surge gave some false hope, but it didn’t last. Since April, activity has slipped and sellers are facing longer days on market—and a need to price more realistically.
It’s a mild advantage, not a slam dunk, but buyers right now do have a bit more room to negotiate, especially as competition eases into the summer lull.
Rental Market Goes Wild Post-FARE Act
Now here's where things get spicy.
Since the FARE Act took effect, median asking rents on RLS listings have surged to over $5,300—a 12% bump from pre-FARE Act levels. That’s not a small adjustment. At the same time, rental inventory has dropped sharply, creating one of the tightest summer rental markets in recent memory.
The question is—will it last? It’s tough to say. Some of the bump could be seasonal; after all, summer is prime rental season. But the FARE Act’s ripple effect is real. Landlords are adjusting, listings are being pulled and reintroduced at higher prices, and broker fees are shifting behind the scenes.
This could nudge more long-term renters to reconsider whether buying makes more sense—especially for those in the sub-$1M market who are now staring down $6K/month leases for small units.
https://nypost.com/2025/06/21/us-news/rents-jump-shocking-15-after-nyc-ditches-broker-fees/
What About Sales? Still Playing Catch-Up
Sales data can be deceptive. What you’re seeing in the latest closed prices today mostly reflects contracts signed in March and April, when buyer enthusiasm briefly rebounded. So yes, prices appear “up”—but only on paper.
Reality is more sobering. The recent drop in contract activity suggests the market has softened since then. By the time Q2 numbers hit in early July, we’ll likely get a clearer picture of just how much momentum has stalled.
That said, we’re not seeing a plunge—just a plateau. Pricing feels sticky, but not frothy. And for some, that’s reassuring.
National Snapshot vs. Manhattan Microcosm
Zooming out, the national housing picture looks a bit gloomier. Permits are down, new supply is slowing, and homebuilder prices are dropping—especially in oversaturated southern markets.
But Manhattan seems oddly resilient in comparison. Urban Digs charts show NYC home prices slightly up, even as other regions falter. That’s partly because inventory remains constrained, and demand is highly concentrated in quality, well-located units.
Sure, this isn’t 2021’s frenzied market. But relative to the rest of the country, Manhattan might just be the least shaky place to stand.
https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/1935084490231312645/photo/1
Mortgage Rates and the Fed: Stuck in the Middle
Here’s the thing about mortgage rates: they’re stuck.
Even with inflation easing slightly, rates are bouncing in a sideways channel. The 30-year fixed hovers near recent lows, but jumbo rates haven’t really broken downward either.
The market is betting on two Fed cuts—one in September, another maybe in October—but that’s hardly guaranteed. And let’s be real: until those cuts land, affordability stays tight. That affects both first-time buyers and move-up buyers who’d need to swap into higher payments.
So for now, we’re in limbo—waiting on the Fed, watching rates, and wondering how it all shakes out.
https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi
What Comes Next?
Everyone's eyes are on post-Labor Day. That’s when the market usually reawakens. But this year, with rents climbing and sales cooling, we might see a unique shift: renters getting fed up with high prices and entering the buying pool sooner than expected.
Meanwhile, sellers are choosing to rent their units instead of slashing prices. That’s creating a kind of “shadow inventory” that’s not visible in the sales data, but will likely resurface later.
Is this the calm before a new storm—or just a weird summer blip? Time will tell. But smart buyers, sellers, and agents should be watching the tea leaves very closely.
👋 Thinking of Buying, Selling, or Renting?
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