The Manhattan real estate market is simmering this summer—not boiling, not freezing, just simmering in a stew of price fatigue, policy shifts, and rising rents.
If you’re watching from the sidelines—whether you’re a hopeful buyer, a fed-up renter, or a seasoned broker—it’s easy to feel like you’ve seen this movie before. But there’s a twist this time. And it has everything to do with a cooling sales market, surging rents post-FARE Act, and a curious lack of panic in the broader financial system.
Sales Are Slowing, But the Sky’s Not Falling
Let’s start with the hard numbers. As of mid-June 2025, Manhattan contract signings clocked in at 919 over the past 30 days—well below the seasonal average of 1,055. That's not a crash; that’s a yawn. Supply is also coming in light, despite early momentum in the spring. In plain English: there aren’t enough fresh listings, and what’s out there isn’t moving fast. Sound familiar?
This deceleration isn’t some catastrophe. It’s the market taking a breath.
Yes, prices haven’t dropped off a cliff—but volume has. And if you’re hoping to sell, that’s a signal. Either your price is too ambitious, or your timing’s off. As one UrbanDigs analyst put it: “This is as good as it gets for a couple months until after Labor Day.” Translation? If you haven’t gotten the action you hoped for by now, it might be time to recalibrate.
Meanwhile, Rents Are on Fire (And Not in a Good Way)
Now for the spicy part—rents. After the FARE Act shifted broker fees to landlords, the median rental listing price in Manhattan jumped from $4,750 pre-FARE to over $5,300 post-FARE. That’s not a typo. That’s a 12% spike. Practically overnight.
Is this a long-term trend or a knee-jerk reaction? Too soon to say. But we know this: landlords are responding to policy changes by padding rents, and individual condo owners are watching their neighbors hike prices and saying, “Why not me?”
We’ve seen this behavior before. It’s not just economic—it's psychological. Summer heat meets herd mentality. And with supply down and seasonal demand climbing, renters have fewer options and even less negotiating power.
Why Are Sales Stalling?
Blame interest rates—or don’t. At this point, buyers have been hearing “rates are high” for two years. They’ve adapted. The real culprit? Affordability. Even with mortgage rates hovering between 6.6% and 7%, it’s the total cost of ownership—taxes, maintenance, insurance—that’s doing the real damage.
Here’s the kicker: insiders are seeing more financed deals than cash ones for the first time in years. That’s a seismic shift in Manhattan, where cash usually rules. But it makes sense. When even high-income buyers feel stretched, liquidity starts to matter.
Macroeconomic Vibes: No Panic, Just Drift
Zooming out: there’s no major stress signal flashing in the credit markets. Credit spreads are stable, inflation is softening (albeit slowly), and the Fed is likely to cut rates twice in the back half of 2025. If you’re expecting another rate-driven buying frenzy, though, don’t hold your breath. Even with cuts, we’re not going back to 3% mortgages.
And while Jamie Dimon is out here warning about a bond market “crack,” most indicators suggest the economy is shrugging off geopolitical noise—from Ukraine to Gaza—and staying the course. That means no imminent crash, but no rocket-fueled rebound either.
Will Rising Rents Push Buyers Back into the Market?
This is the wildcard. With median rents now rivaling monthly mortgage payments for entry-level condos, renters might start asking themselves: “Why am I handing over five grand a month to someone else?”
It’s too early to call it a trend, but if the rental market stays this tight through August, expect a few would-be renters to shift gears and go shopping—especially in that $700K to $1.2M range where the math almost works.
And that shift, even if modest, could help stabilize the lower end of the sales market in Q3.
Political Season Is Here (Brace Yourself)
And don’t forget—it’s election season in NYC. With ranked-choice voting and housing policy front and center, the results could shake things up. Will the next administration loosen restrictions and encourage development? Or double down on regulation?
The private sector is waiting with bated breath.
A Market in Waiting
This market isn’t tanking, but it’s not thriving either. It’s just... waiting. Buyers are hesitant. Sellers are stubborn. Renters are squeezed. And the Fed is tiptoeing toward a couple of rate cuts. In a city that thrives on momentum, the pause feels weirdly unsettling.
But maybe, just maybe, that’s the opportunity.
🏡 Thinking About Making a Move?
Whether you're tired of paying sky-high rent or wondering if it’s finally time to list, let’s talk strategy. Manhattan real estate isn’t one-size-fits-all—it’s hyperlocal, emotionally charged, and always shifting. If you're looking for straight answers and a plan tailored to you, reach out. No pressure. Just real talk and smart moves.