Q4 Brooklyn Market Report Analysis

Q4 Brooklyn Market Report Analysis

  • Javier & Thomas
  • 01/28/22

Transcript:

So Thomas, Q4 Brooklyn last year, crazy record sales, there has never been a Q4 like this in Brooklyn I think they sold, what is it, like over 3.2 billion or something like that, sorry I lost my notes, it is 3.2 billion it was crazy in Brooklyn, there's no inventory the price is going up, across the board it's pretty much driven by new development, in condo sales because surprisingly co-ops went down in value the only segment that went down, no, to be fair not all co-ops went down in value when we talked about something we're talking about the whole market as a whole in Brooklyn specifically so co-ops went down in value the only segment that went down it went down like eight percent, seven point nine, but you know, seven point nine percent so I round up or round down in case if you're a co-op owner you probably felt I round down, condos went up in value 16 that's an incredible number it is a massive number, every number that we're saying year over year, 16 a condo now cost 60 more than a year before in Brooklyn, overall I think this was driven mostly by the north Brooklyn market the new development in the north Brooklyn market specifically Williamsburg yeah it carried like 60 50 of this inventory like into the luxury level that is correct however south Brooklyn is where the majority of the business was done with 46 of all sales done in south Brooklyn yeah so it's interesting right, Brooklyn and Queens does this too but Brooklyn has a large inventory of single-family houses and small multi-families most of them are in south Brooklyn so a lot of these houses sold last a quarter, it was one of the biggest quarters also in housing price in single-family house price jump and volume that's what drove this 41 42 percent, 46 percent almost half of it was just housing in houses in south Brooklyn and generally that was going to be driven by a few different factors you're going to have your first time buyers your new families you know those people having kids for the first time and cheap interest rates and also when you're buying a single home you don't have the same buy-in entry level that you do with a condo or a co-op, that's true that's very important right, a lot of these houses are being bought with five percent down 10 down a condo or club will not let you do that because it doesn't depend on the lender it depends on the building they have their own rules houses you don't have those individual rules it depends on the lender lenders will lend you five percent of a certain property if the property allows co-ops condos no houses yes that drives a lot of the purchasing power in south Brooklyn which by the way we say south Brooklyn honestly south Brooklyn is half of Brooklyn below the park anything below Prospect Park all of that that massive space which is huge is many neighborhoods we call that south Brooklyn sorry that's like agent talk, overall Brooklyn it's very very healthy we were just looking at the market report for last week from our friends at Urban digs and so we're looking now in January by the time of recording we're like the third week of january right, now the 27th happy birthday sister, and then the the market in Brooklyn right now is picking up, we've had a very tight inventory in January, and it's kind of like finally expanding, we're seeing new inventory rolled in in this last week like I think 80 some percent more inventory from the week prior so now buyers are gonna have more to choose the buyers have had very little stuff to choose from in the last few weeks, and we still have low interest rates so there's still very good opportunities to buy I honestly believe that even if the feds raise the interest rates as they probably will in the next few quarters, the interest rates for lending are still going to be at a very low place, don't quote me on that, but i still believe that's going to be the case, what do you think? you know I was very happy to see that the interest rates didn't go up this quarter i do think they're going to go up i think we will see the full point by this time next year um you know I think inflation is going to get out of control so they will have to do something to bring that in and that it will put pressure on the pricing right, because it's going to knock some people out of the market and one thing that sellers fail to realize in this market is that buyers are the one that sets the prices so a seller can say that this property is worth 1.5 million but if nobody is offering 1.5 million then it's not going to sell for 1.5 million right, you need a buyer to come in and say yes I agree you need to have what they call a meeting of the minds, in order to make that sale happen, so if you have a combination of inflation which is going to suck more money out of people's pockets and then you're going to have rising interest rates which is going to lessen your bargaining or lessen your purchase power at some point people won't have the resources to keep setting these record prices we're already starting to see a little bit just in, these last couple weeks that the price per square foot is coming down a little bit, you know it is January so a lot of this inventory that has gone into contract recently probably sat on market for a little bit um we'll have a clearer picture of it probably in the next 30 days as we see the the new inventory that came on at the beginning of the year going to contract it's about 120 days 128 days is the average day on the market so over the you know these next few weeks we'll start seeing these numbers come in and we'll have a clearer picture of what the new year, what the spring market is going to look like, are we going to be able to keep up with these record numbers? probably not, it's looking at the history of the market, it looks like we've hit the ceiling you know if you look back in April 2019 those numbers are pretty similar to what we are in October when we're at the peak and if you look through like June January of 18 October 2016 you can draw a straight line across your price per square foot, yeah I believe and I believe that's why we're gonna bounce up actually because the trend it's looking to me that it's gonna break up in the next few months instead of staying stale but I look we cannot really predict the future we can just like for see whatever we think it's gonna happen I think the market in bBrooklyn still has enough room to grow even if the interest rates were gonna go up that's not gonna happen in the next six months, at least not in the mortgage part, and that's gonna give enough time for buyers to go out and and get some stuff so to wrap up right, Brooklyn Q4 record number, record volume of sales, crazy Q4 ever in history, we have a market driven by a lot of first-time home buyers in south Brooklyn affordable low down payments basically are driving this which is fantastic and then we have a luxury dominated by new development in north Brooklyn which is driving the prices of the condos up whether this is what's affecting the prices of the co-ops or not I think one of the reasons why the co-ops have take down is because the affordability of the single family house the fact that you can go in a single family house at five ten percent another twenty percent down that a call requires when you're a buyer in Brooklyn maybe you will decide to go for a house rather than the co-op no we call that I don't know if that's true this is just me interpreting stuff you know, it but it's important for people to get in at that price point right you can get in with the five percent you start creating what's called generational wealth, yeah, and that is the first step to you know, building futures for your families for your kids and your grandkids and so it's important to see all these things happening and it's gonna make for a really great year look if you lock a property right now and inflation does happen astronomically like it said, you're going to be locked in a very low interest rate mortgage low payments and the value of your property is going to go up inevitably in the next few years, and you're going to start building equity on that like almost for free, well not for free I guess the dollar is worth less but the equity is up but your mortgage payment isn't going to change right, correct so your mortgage payment stays the same, unlike your rent, your rent will continue to go up because the landlord's bill will continue to go up so absolutely rent goes up mortgage stays the same, so, bye, call us, so anyway that's Q4 for Brooklyn Q4 2021 for Brooklyn. Thomas, Javier, Thrive Real Estate Team. If you have any questions, comment here, there, like smash subscribe, hit us with an email, call us, we'd love to help you out in your process, see you soon.

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