The latest update on Manhattan's real estate market reveals a steady increase in the supply of available properties for sale. According to the chart, there has been a 1.5% increase in supply over the past week, and this upward trend has been in place for about six weeks. However, despite the increase in new listing activity, it is not contributing significantly to the inventory numbers.
On the other hand, the pending sales number has seen an uptrend for three consecutive weeks, with a 3% increase this week. This indicates that the pending sales have bottomed and are on an upward trajectory. But the deal volume, new listing activity, and monthly deal volume are still below the expected trend.
Despite this, deal volume is increasing at a strong pace, and with pending sales returning and supply increasing, the market pulse is hovering around 0.37. It is uncertain which force will dominate the other, ultimately deciding the direction of the pulse.
There is anecdotal evidence to suggest that many listings are lingering and frustrating, but this is probably because new listings are being absorbed quickly. The supply chart shows that the number of available listings is closer to the low side and not at a high level. Although January usually sees an increase in listing activity, this year we are not experiencing the typical V-shaped recovery, which may contribute to the feeling that inventory is stale.
At the weekly level, new listings are coming in at a pace that is on trend. Currently, there are more than 400 new listings per week, which is where we should be for March and April. Nevertheless, supply is not increasing as expected.
Contract signings have also increased, with 233 contracts signed this week, up 18 from the previous week. Although this number is still below what was recorded in 2021 and 2022, we are above the pace set in 2019, which is considered a normal measure.
In summary, the Manhattan real estate market is still influenced by a mix of supply and demand forces. While there is a steady increase in supply, the pace of new listing activity is not generating a significant growth in inventory numbers. On the demand side, pending sales are showing a steady uptrend, but deal volume remains below the expected trend. However, deal volume is increasing at a strong pace, and contract signings are above the pace set in 2019. It is still unclear which force will dominate the other, ultimately determining the direction of the market pulse.