Q2 MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT ANALYSIS

Q2 MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT ANALYSIS

  • Javier
  • 07/14/22

Transcript:

hello everyone Javier here with the Thrive Real Estate Team at Compass i am joined today by nobody unfortunately uh Thomas is not available so i'm alone i'm alone talking to you about the q2 Manhattan report the quarter the second quarter report on the manhattan real estate market um and it was a very interesting report because depending on the headline you read you think something is happening or something is not happening so let's start with some numbers and some data of what is happening i'm going to come down here i'm going to open up these little numbers in the screen i don't know if you can see it's going to push in a little bit these are our sales recorded sales so really quickly in Manhattan i'm sure i say this in every video i'm gonna repeat it in manhattan the recorded sales are delayed usually three to six months so the numbers that we're seeing as close sales in the quarter two reflect actually the pending units three or six months ago so these numbers are record numbers they are showing an average sales price really high in condos and co-ops they are showing a medium price also high this is all good data it's the past but it's good that it's good data to know it's good data to know that if three months ago this is what the buyers and the sellers were agreeing on their market has shifted has just has it shifted dramatically now do we have a shift pendulum going all the way no but we have been saying month after month and week after week the market is softening a little bit buyers are less likely to go in uh at a very high bids because they have more inventory so let's talk about that year to year sales have grown let me open my notes here nice sales have grown year to year in manhattan they have grown year to year almost eight percent in the number of sales recorded sales right so it still looks like the market is growing we're looking at a value of the average sales price and the medium sales price going around 10 to 9 depending on what you're looking at 10.9 10.7 million on average and in overall volume in manhattan we've recorded around 18 more in so it's 8.8 billion dollars in recorded sales so that's yeah 18 18.6 more than the previous quarter last year year over year so that looks like wow we're really selling a lot and it's true considering that this contract went into new development in the new development contracts went into effect q4 or q3 of last year when the frenzy of buying was happening and a lot of this contract got signed in January on February and march before the interest rate started climbing out a lot of buyers went like i do it now or i do it never um so this sounds like a great story and i'm gonna move to the little bit more difficult part of the story is the amount of contract signs this is where we're starting to see this is a real-time data the the properties that are going into contract today is exactly what the buyers want the amount of properties that are going into contract today can tell you what is the general feeling of the marketplace today well not today in the q2 we had 34.98 contracts signed almost 3 500 countries signed that is 24.6 less than the previous year doesn't really matter 24 minus 24.6 so year over year we had 1200 contracts signed less than the year before that is just showing that we have less buyers and the next thing that i'm going to pull through is the inventory we have like 5.6 more inventory now than we did last year so we have less people buying we have a little bit more inventory and even though the sales prices were recorded really high it does not reflect the market today it really reflects the market three months ago why am i telling you all this well because if you're a buyer this is a great opportunity to go out there and buy i know interest rates seem high look at the historical average of interest rates and you realize that they're still low they might go higher right less Friday that's Friday inflation the last inflation number that we saw was 9.1 percent inflation which means that they're likely going to go up in interest rates the feds and that tends to usually drive the mortgage rates up not always but it's fair to assume that it might um and when we are looking at this high inventory look at this inventory going up 5.7 from last year in total another point of data that i don't have any way to show you here in the slides if you give me a call or shoot me an email or just ask me on a dm or wherever you're watching this i can send you this full report for your full review is that co-ops actually outsold or out-contracted condos uh which is um it's not unusual but the trend lately had been that condos were selling more than columns carves seem to be a little bit more affordable uh they tend to be less of a speculative asset so we're looking at buyers who are looking for security they're looking for affordability they're looking for value not that condos are not valuable but there's a different value in one and the other so that's part of like the market shift that we're looking at if you are a seller you have to be smart about pricing usually sellers want a price at the market at the sales record and whatever and that is chasing the market because the reality is that the buyers are already three months ahead you have to have a conversation with your agent and talk about what is the market doing where is it trending to what's the average days on market our average days of market in Manhattan right now is 160 some days i believe 158 days maybe not right now last quarter right now still hovering around that 158 160 in all of manhattan the you calculate your average days on the market that's how much you might expect to be on the market before you have a signed contract that's a lot of time right and then you calculate from the moment i list this property till then what's the trend in the market and i am sorry to say that the trend in the market is that the last quarter went down five percent or the inventory went on 5.7 and we have like five percent less uh contract sign than the previous quarter and the prices might be actually trending down because the buyers have more possibility so when you look at the numbers think about what is going to be the market in two months in a month and that's where you want to price you're going to drive more buyers in because they're going to see value in your property you might actually have a few offers we have a property on the market right now seven days five offers all of them well of us it was priced to the future market not to the market that appears today it was priced ahead of the market the worst place that a seller wants to be is chasing the market down the way that shows up in a listing is price reduction price reduction price reduction price reduction a better way to show up in a listing is wow that place looks amazing look at that price and it has been on the market for no days every buyer wants to see it so this market sounds scary sometimes you're still banking on your property for the buyers interest rates high sounds scary sometimes they're still not really that high when it comes to the marketplace it's important more so now than ever to really work with a professional because you can have somebody to consult on market data on market trends on proper procedures understanding what a shifting market does to the marketplace and the value of properties and the psychology of the buyers and the sellers so that said in this very one directional conversation which i would usually have with my partner who is sitting right there somewhere else reach out to us if you have any questions anything you want to know click like share send us your referrals call us for your business whatever that is thanks for listening i'll talk to you probably next week take care

Transcript:

hello everyone Javier here with the thrive real estate team at compass i am joined today by nobody unfortunately uh Thomas is not available so i'm alone i'm alone talking to you about the q2 Manhattan report the quarter the second quarter report on the manhattan real estate market um and it was a very interesting report because depending on the headline you read you think something is happening or something is not happening so let's start with some numbers and some data of what is happening i'm going to come down here i'm going to open up these little numbers in the screen i don't know if you can see it's going to push in a little bit these are our sales recorded sales so really quickly in Manhattan i'm sure i say this in every video i'm gonna repeat it in Manhattan the recorded sales are delayed usually three to six months so the numbers that we're seeing as close sales in the quarter two reflect actually the pending units three or six months ago so these numbers are record numbers they are showing an average sales price really high in condos and co-ops they are showing a medium price also high this is all good data it's the past but it's good that it's good data to know it's good data to know that if three months ago this is what the buyers and the sellers were agreeing on their market has shifted has just has it shifted dramatically now do we have a shift pendulum going all the way no but we have been saying month after month and week after week the market is softening a little bit buyers are less likely to go in uh at a very high bids because they have more inventory so let's talk about that year to year sales have grown let me open my notes here nice sales have grown year to year in manhattan they have grown year to year almost eight percent in the number of sales recorded sales right so it still looks like the market is growing we're looking at a value of the average sales price and the medium sales price going around 10 to 9 depending on what you're looking at 10.9 10.7 million on average and in overall volume in Manhattan we've recorded around 18 more in so it's 8.8 billion dollars in recorded sales so that's yeah 18 18.6 more than the previous quarter last year year over year so that looks like wow we're really selling a lot and it's true considering that this contract went into new development in the new development contracts went into effect q4 or q3 of last year when the frenzy of buying was happening and a lot of this contract got signed in January on February and march before the interest rate started climbing out a lot of buyers went like i do it now or i do it never um so this sounds like a great story and i'm gonna move to the little bit more difficult part of the story is the amount of contract signs this is where we're starting to see this is a real-time data the the properties that are going into contract today is exactly what the buyers want the amount of properties that are going into contract today can tell you what is the general feeling of the marketplace today well not today in the q2 we had 34.98 contracts signed almost 3 500 countries signed that is 24.6 less than the previous year doesn't really matter 24 minus 24.6 so year over year we had 1200 contracts signed less than the year before that is just showing that we have less buyers and the next thing that i'm going to pull through is the inventory we have like 5.6 more inventory now than we did last year so we have less people buying we have a little bit more inventory and even though the sales prices were recorded really high it does not reflect the market today it really reflects the market three months ago why am i telling you all this well because if you're a buyer this is a great opportunity to go out there and buy i know interest rates seem high look at the historical average of interest rates and you realize that they're still low they might go higher right less Friday that's Friday inflation the last inflation number that we saw was 9.1 percent inflation which means that they're likely going to go up in interest rates the feds and that tends to usually drive the mortgage rates up not always but it's fair to assume that it might um and when we are looking at this high inventory look at this inventory going up 5.7 from last year in total another point of data that i don't have any way to show you here in the slides if you give me a call or shoot me an email or just ask me on a dm or wherever you're watching this i can send you this full report for your full review is that co-ops actually outsold or out-contracted condos uh which is um it's not unusual but the trend lately had been that condos were selling more than columns carves seem to be a little bit more affordable uh they tend to be less of a speculative asset so we're looking at buyers who are looking for security they're looking for affordability they're looking for value not that condos are not valuable but there's a different value in one and the other so that's part of like the market shift that we're looking at if you are a seller you have to be smart about pricing usually sellers want a price at the market at the sales record and whatever and that is chasing the market because the reality is that the buyers are already three months ahead you have to have a conversation with your agent and talk about what is the market doing where is it trending to what's the average days on market our average days of market in manhattan right now is 160 some days i believe 158 days maybe not right now last quarter right now still hovering around that 158 160 in all of Manhattan the you calculate your average days on the market that's how much you might expect to be on the market before you have a signed contract that's a lot of time right and then you calculate from the moment i list this property till then what's the trend in the market and i am sorry to say that the trend in the market is that the last quarter went down five percent or the inventory went on 5.7 and we have like five percent less uh contract sign than the previous quarter and the prices might be actually trending down because the buyers have more possibility so when you look at the numbers think about what is going to be the market in two months in a month and that's where you want to price you're going to drive more buyers in because they're going to see value in your property you might actually have a few offers we have a property on the market right now seven days five offers all of them well of us it was priced to the future market not to the market that appears today it was priced ahead of the market the worst place that a seller wants to be is chasing the market down the way that shows up in a listing is price reduction price reduction price reduction price reduction a better way to show up in a listing is wow that place looks amazing look at that price and it has been on the market for no days every buyer wants to see it so this market sounds scary sometimes you're still banking on your property for the buyers interest rates high sounds scary sometimes they're still not really that high when it comes to the marketplace it's important more so now than ever to really work with a professional because you can have somebody to consult on market data on market trends on proper procedures understanding what a shifting market does to the marketplace and the value of properties and the psychology of the buyers and the sellers so that said in this very one directional conversation which i would usually have with my partner who is sitting right there somewhere else reach out to us if you have any questions anything you want to know click like share send us your referrals call us for your business whatever that is thanks for listening i'll talk to you probably next week take care

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